Trump has called on April 2nd to be Liberation Day.
Basically it is when the tariffs levied by the USA on many other nations begins.
Now without going into the politics of it and my own sentiment, let’s take a look from a vesting angle where I personally feel we can be better positioned.
Short USD - tariffs will mean less countries will sell to the US, so demand for USD will decrease. USD will only increase if US interest rates go up (which they are not likely to) or if the IS produces enough to export globally that demand for USD increases
Long JPY, AUD - this then means more global trade via other global currencies. And there are many to choose from but here are my top two choices. JPY is because Japan is poised to raise interest rates, and their currency has depreciated obscenely much in the last two years. AUD is because Australia has been in the doldrums from a poor China downturn for the last two years and with China rising, Australian produce and commodities will be in demand again and AUD will naturally appreciate.
Long China - talk about a waking giant. China performance has been in such doldrums for too long and with Trump’s isolationist policies, China is poised to take on more authority in the world order and that means the rise of China. Will the US regret and start to curb their rise? Only time will tell but China is the largest world power currently capable of challenging the USA.
Long Ex-US Defence - who’s going to be able to rely on Uncle Sam for protection anymore? Everyone and their mothers are already thinking or pivoting to either their own defence more seriously, or looking at other partnerships. This likely means the largest pivot from US defence contractors to Global defence contractors that the world has seen this century.
Short US Equities, Long World Equities - this is probably one of the most predictable arbitrage trades now. The US is isolating and naturally more of the global obsession towards the US stock market for the last ten years, is about to fade. How quickly this plays out would be anyone’s guess, but my guess is that it will be soon.
Long Gold - no brainer here, the world is getting very uncertain and Gold is continuously breaking new highs. It is slated to go higher as the world situation becomes very volatile. Holding physical is even better.
Long Bitcoin - this is a little bit of an outlier, but the technical aspect of BTC being a finite store of value (even if it has no utility) is the same argument as Gold. It is just that Gold is the standard store of value in uncertain times and has been around for far longer.
Anyway all these opinions are purely my own and do not represent any recommendations to trade. Please do your own due diligence when investing or speculating!
Let’s HUAT together!
